March ’25 Retail Report: Spring Pickup & Cash Flow Planning 29 Mar 2025, 3:27 pm

The Big Picture
Retail sales inched up by 0.2% last month — not quite the 0.6% boost analysts anticipated, as frigid weather and market jitters kept shoppers at bay. This cautious consumer sentiment echoed the latest confidence numbers, which dropped by 11%.

Concerns over tariffs and the ongoing battle with inflation are keeping both consumers and the Fed on edge.

But it wasn’t all cloudy skies. Home sales showed a promising 4.2% increase, hinting that buyers are shaking off their winter slump. Plus, the job market remains steady, providing a solid foundation amid the economic turbulence.

February Trends
Overall sales dipped 1% across our client stores last month, but there were bright spots worth celebrating. Men’s Clothing, Sport Coats, and Special Orders saw modest growth in the low single-digits.

Menswear posted a 1% gain, and women’s wear slipped 2%, partly due to February’s shorter selling window.

In women’s wear, Ready-to-Wear and Special Orders took the biggest hit, but Day Dresses saw a nice boost.

As the season unfolds, we anticipate a lift in dresses in general, and men’s wovens, so stay tuned for sunnier sales ahead.

Staying Agile
With market swings and tariff talk stirring uncertainty, it’s crucial for retailers to tighten up cash flow planning. Aim to keep any negative open-to-buy (OTB) under 90 days. Start by making adjustments at the class level to stay nimble.

And those potential tariffs? Don’t let them throw you off your game. Instead, see them as a chance to boost margin dollars by marking up the higher prices in the short term. Adaptability is the name of the game in this unpredictable climate.

Blacks’ Bottom Line
In these choppy waters, it pays to stay vigilant. Keep a sharp eye on negative OTB, and hold back at least 20% of fall purchases for in-season opportunities.

The Difference Between Good & Great Retailers 24 Mar 2025, 11:56 am

We’ve worked with a wide range of businesses over the years—family-owned shops, ambitious startups, and newly acquired ventures finding their footing. No matter their starting point, we’ve helped them sharpen their strategies and improve performance. But here’s the real kicker: some businesses don’t just see slow and steady gains – they take off!

So, what separates the good from the truly great? It’s not location. It’s not market segment. It’s not even superstar salespeople. It’s their management style.

The businesses that have a long and successful track record are the ones that embrace disciplined planning, teamwork, and honest self-assessment. They break out of outdated habits, stay laser-focused on their goals, and put in the work to make real progress.

The Winning Formula for Inventory Planning Success

Want to set your business up for a major win? Here are the key habits that set top retailers apart:

1. They Hold Regular Planning Meetings
Inventory planning isn’t just about stock—it’s about strategy. The best retailers prioritize consistent check-ins to analyze cash flow, adjust budgets, and ensure they’re making smart purchasing decisions. Regular meetings = fewer surprises and more control.

2. They Face Hard Truths
Retail success isn’t about wishful thinking. Consumer trends shift. Supply chains get disrupted. The best retailers confront challenges head-on, adapt quickly, and turn obstacles into opportunities. No sugar-coating—just smart, proactive decision-making.

3. They Build Strong, Committed Teams
High-performing retailers have low employee turnover and a culture of accountability. They create teams that follow through on initiatives, communicate openly, and execute strategies effectively. A tight-knit, motivated team can be the difference between success and stagnation.

4. They Maintain Clean, Reliable Data
Your inventory plan is only as good as the data behind it. Successful retailers track sales, stock levels, and supplier data meticulously to fuel smart decision-making. (And if your data is messy? Don’t worry—we can help you clean it up and get on track!)

5. They Stick to Their Budgets
We can provide you with strategic, well-defined budgets to help you reach your goals, but it’s up to you to follow them. Retailers who consistently overspend are always playing catch-up. The best ones stay disciplined and in control.

Ready to Level Up? Let’s Talk.
We know running a retail business means wearing a hundred different hats. That’s why we take the guesswork out of inventory planning—helping you track trends, manage your Open-To-Buy plan, and keep your bottom line healthy.

If you’re serious about taking your business to the next level, let’s chat.

Feb. ’25 Retail Report: Spring Strategies to Boost Your Business 27 Feb 2025, 6:28 pm

The Big Picture
Inflation notched up considerably last month, coming in at 3%. This unwelcome news came amid more talk of tariffs, rattling markets and creating an uncertain retail environment.

Meanwhile, overall retail sales dropped for the first time in two years, down 0.9% in January. This was partly due to the frigid weather that spread across parts of the country, keeping shoppers indoors.

January Trends
While the wider market faced challenges, sales were positive among our client stores, especially for January.

Women’s wear saw a 4% gain, while Menswear ticked up by 2% overall.

In women’s, ready-to-wear posted a 3% gain, with dresses climbing 5%, after several seasons of flat to down numbers. This was mostly due to demand for casual dresses.

In men’s, Sportswear took the lead, up 2%, while Clothing fell by 1%. Sportswear offers a clear opportunity for men’s stores, after several years of steady growth in Clothing.
Soft coats saw huge gains, along with sweaters, knits, and topcoats.

Spring Strategy
If you had slow sales so far this year, don’t overreact. In many cases this was weather related.

We are talking to many of our clients now about “getting ahead of the sale.” This is what you do proactively to generate business based on past patterns.

Who are your regular customers this time of year? What customer events can you tap into (graduations, weddings, etc.)? Reach out now to start warming up those spring transactions.

Blacks’ Bottom Line
Resist the urge to overreact to a down month, or economic mixed signals. Many of our stores are seeing consistent gains, so focus instead on proactive sales planning.

You’re Overbought – Here’s Why Bringing in Newness Still Matters 24 Feb 2025, 5:10 pm

Managing inventory is one of the biggest challenges retailers face, especially when they’ve ordered too much. Excess stock ties up cash, takes up valuable space, and can lead to heavy markdowns.

At the same time, keeping fresh products on the shelves is crucial for keeping customers engaged and staying competitive. So, how can retailers bring in new inventory without making their overstock problem worse? Here are some practical strategies.

1. Make Room by Moving Existing Inventory

Before adding anything new, retailers need to free up space and cash.

Discounts & Promotions: Running clearance sales, bundle deals, or limited-time discounts can help clear out old inventory.

Sell to Liquidators: Off-price retailers, wholesalers, or discount platforms can take surplus stock off your hands and free up room for new items.

Return to Vendors (RTV): If your suppliers allow it, send back slow-moving items for credit or exchange. Negotiating flexible return policies upfront can help avoid future overstock. Talk to your inventory analyst about this strategy since you do not want to compromise your vendor relationships.

2. Buy Smarter & Adjust Inventory Strategies

To keep from getting overbought again, take a more strategic approach to purchasing.

Rework Your Buying Budget: Shift funds from future restocks of slow-moving items to exciting new products that have more sales potential. Your Blacks analyst can help you reassign open-to-buy.

Test in Small Batches: Instead of committing to large orders, start with smaller quantities up-front to gauge customer interest before going all in.

Use Drop-Shipping or Consignment: Some vendors offer drop-shipping or consignment options, so you don’t have to buy new stock upfront.

3. Market & Merchandise Smarter

Getting creative with sales and marketing can help move inventory while making room for new arrivals.

Rearrange Your Displays: Sometimes, simply reorganizing store layouts or adjusting online product placements can draw attention to overlooked inventory.

For example, if you have limited sizes, displaying by size rather than by style can help steer customers to the sizes that are available to them across different selections of the same type of product.

Leverage Loyalty Programs: Offer early access or exclusive discounts to your most loyal customers to encourage faster sell-through.

4. Work Closely with Vendors

Building strong supplier relationships can offer more flexibility when it comes to managing inventory.

Negotiate Better Payment Terms: Extending payment deadlines can ease cash flow, giving you time to sell old stock while bringing in new products.

Trade in Old Stock: Some vendors will let you exchange slow-moving inventory for something new that might perform better.

Collaborate on Marketing: Work with suppliers on joint promotions to create more buzz around both your current stock and new arrivals.

Wrapping It Up
Even if you’re overbought, introducing new products is possible with the right approach. By clearing out old stock, refining your buying strategy, leveraging smart marketing, and working with vendors, you can keep your store fresh and engaging—without putting your business at risk.

A professional inventory planner can help you navigate these strategies and prevent over-buying.

Jan. ’25 Retail Report: 2025 Trends and Planning For Uncertainty 31 Jan 2025, 4:49 pm

The Big Picture

The U.S. economy ended 2024 a bit hot, fueled by strong consumer consumption and job growth.

Analysts predict that 2024 GDP growth will come in at around 2.7%, beating expectations.

In December, inflation notched up 2.9% compared to a year earlier, yet core inflation (excluding food and energy) dropped, giving the markets a boost.

December Trends

It was a great holiday season for most of our retailers, with sales up 4% overall last month.

Menswear posted a 6% sales gain, led by sportswear categories, which were up 9% in total.

Women’s wear came in flat, but we did see a nice pickup in special occasion dresses, up 18%, and skirts, up 23%. These gains came despite weaker demand for dresses over the last couple of seasons.

In both men’s and women’s, sweaters and knits were among the top sellers and we expect this trend to continue into spring.

2025 – Focusing on Turn & Newness

With new government trade proposals, we could face some additional pricing uncertainty this year.

If you’re going to focus on one metric to bring stability, we suggest that you take a close look at your turn rates. If you increase your turn, you can decrease your markdowns and this helps you maintain your margins.

With quicker turn rates you’ll also need to buy less upfront, leaving more purchases for in-season when you have a better idea of exactly what you need to sell.

This is also where newness comes in. Better margins will allow you to take a chance on new vendors, keeping customers excited and coming back.

Blacks’ Bottom Line
We’re starting off the year on a strong footing, but you need to be methodical with your planning to maintain the gains we’ve seen in recent years.

2024 Apparel Trends Wrapped & Spring ’25 Preview 26 Jan 2025, 12:45 pm

All said, 2024 was a pretty good year for our apparel merchants, particularly in menswear.

According to client data from across the country, sales of women’s wear came in even against last year, while menswear made an impressive 6% gain overall.

Let’s take a closer look at where we saw the most growth, and which categories lost momentum.

In menswear, outerwear and clothing continued to thrive. We saw the biggest gains in topcoats/rainwear (38%), sweaters (15%) and sportscoats (13%). 

Men’s activewear saw the biggest drop, down 16%, as customers decided they could make do with what was already in their closets.

In women’s, it was the opposite story when it came to activewear. Women’s active tops and bottoms spiked for the full year (52% and 13%, respectively), but both lost momentum in the last 90 days.

Outside of activewear, dress sales continue to be sluggish, but skirts soared, up 27% for the year. Tops also did well, coloring in the story that women wanted separates.

Some women’s stores lost a chunk of revenue from a decline in special orders (down 9%), while men’s stores made gains in the same category (up 9%).

Spring/Summer ‘25

Looking ahead, we believe there’s room to grow in knits, sweaters, and casual pants.

On the men’s side, consider how many 5-pocket pants you want to buy upfront. Sales have been a bit choppy recently, and many stores have too much inventory.

You may want to re-balance your supply of denim vs. 5-pocket vs casual pants. Although 5-pocket pants have led sales in the past, recently we have seen more momentum in casual pants.

On the women’s side, we expect sweater and dress trends to mirror last year, where spring sweaters sold for longer.
We suggest you land your spring sweaters early and do fill-in orders for best sellers as the season progresses.

Dresses did not really start to move until the weather improved in early spring. This category is seeing seasonal spikes, but is not as strong as it was in years past.

The key overall, of course, is looking for a little bit of newness in all your apparel categories. This could be intricate details, seasonal colors, and new vendors with a different point of view. We haven’t seen any strong trends that bring new life to the market in a while, so it’s up to our merchants to find some innovation.

Dec. ’24 Retail Report: Year Ends With Holiday Sales Surge 30 Dec 2024, 2:42 pm

The Big Picture
It has been a great year for retail, and all signs point to a strong economy heading into 2025.

Inflation dropped to 2.4% last month, beating expectations, and unemployment remains low.

In further good news, the data we have so far points to a successful holiday season.

Over Black Friday weekend, online sales broke records, up 10% over last year, and total holiday sales grew 4.8% through the last week before Christmas, according to Visa’s Retail Spend Monitor.

November Trends
Among our Blacks’ clients, menswear posted a 9% gain in November, while women’s wear came in flat.

The women’s number is a bit misleading, since Ready-to-Wear posted a 6% gain for the month. However, the overall numbers were dragged down by a contraction in women’s Special Orders.

In men’s, Clothing categories continued to knock it out of the park, soaring 19% last month. Sportswear also did well, up 6%.

2025 Plans
We’re starting the new year getting ready for the fall markets. Ask yourself: how could I have spent my time and open-to-buy (OTB) more effectively last year? Identify the categories that were misses last season, not just the wins.

If you’re not doing it already, get more granular when it comes to analyzing your vendor structure and asking bigger questions, such as: Is my vendor matrix producing the margin I need to run my business?
Even if you had a good sell-thru rate last season, you need to understand if it was driven by markdowns, or if you were successful at selling at full price.

Try assigning OTB at the vendor level to make sure your investments are balanced toward the most profitable lines.

Blacks’ Bottom Line
Take some time to look at your key performance indicators from this year and set some realistic goals for 2025.

The Lingerie Industry: Growth Depends on the Right Planning 16 Dec 2024, 3:50 pm

The lingerie industry is undergoing a transformation fueled by changing consumer preferences, increased focus on inclusivity, and a surge in e-commerce.

With a U.S. market size valued at $22 billion in 2023, the industry is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.1% through 2030, according to Grand View Research. This growth is driven by rising demand for stylish yet comfortable intimates, innovative fabric technologies, and the expansion of brands into new markets.

Sales Trends: Comfort Meets Style

Consumers are increasingly prioritizing comfort without compromising style. Sales of wireless bras, bralettes, and seamless lingerie have surged in recent years, reflecting the broader “comfort-first” trend catalyzed by the pandemic. Shapewear, another key category, continues to thrive, with products that balance functionality and aesthetics gaining popularity.

Inclusive sizing has become a significant growth driver as consumers demand representation across all body types.

E-commerce remains a cornerstone of the lingerie industry’s growth, with online sales projected to account for over 50% of the market by 2025.

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But brick-and-mortar retailers can still thrive in the competitive lingerie market by leveraging their physical presence to create unique, personalized, and immersive shopping experiences. They can also benefit from the right planning strategy, which differs from normal apparel planning.

“Lingerie stores are in a constant state of buying, so they need a receipt plan in place at all times, not just in market periods,” says Blacks’ Senior Analyst Mike McSheffrey. These plans focus on sizing, since basics buying is constantly happening, he adds.

Not only is the store’s buying cadence different than in apparel, so is the customer’s buying cadence, McSheffrey notes.

“We see a lot of business in November/December with gift card purchases that are redeemed from January into March,” he says.

_______________

Now that we know more about the right inventory planning strategy, here’s how brick-and-mortar lingerie stores can stand out:

1. Offer Personalized Experiences

Expert Fit Consultations: Provide professional fitting services to help customers find their perfect size and style. Many consumers still prefer in-person fittings over virtual tools for accuracy and comfort.

2. Create a Unique In-Store Experience

Sensory Appeal: Design visually appealing stores with soft lighting, luxurious materials, and comfortable fitting rooms to evoke a sense of indulgence and intimacy, and are flattering for shoppers.
Workshops and Events: Host bra-fitting workshops, lingerie care tutorials, or private shopping events to build community and brand loyalty.

3. Emphasize Product Differentiation

Exclusive In-Store Collections: Carry unique or limited-edition items available only in stores to entice customers to visit.
Focus on Comfort and Innovation: Highlight features like sustainable fabrics, wireless designs, and multifunctional lingerie that resonate with modern consumers.

4. Prioritize Inclusivity and Diversity

Inclusive Sizing and Styles: Stock a wide range of sizes, skin-tone options, and gender-neutral designs to cater to a diverse customer base.
Representation in Marketing: Use in-store displays and campaigns that showcase diverse models to make every shopper feel represented.

5. Train Knowledgeable Staff

Equip staff with deep product knowledge, empathy, and excellent customer service skills. A warm, understanding approach can make the experience more comfortable for shoppers.

6. Stay Agile with Trends

Brick-and-mortar stores should actively track and respond to trends in comfort wear, active-inspired lingerie, and fashion-forward designs. Quick adaptation keeps them relevant.

By focusing on creating a personal and engaging shopping journey, brick-and-mortar lingerie retailers can thrive in a rapidly evolving market. Their ability to combine physical touchpoints, and personal service sets them apart from online-only competitors.

Nov. ’24 Retail Report: Holidays Sales Surge on Wave of Consumer Confidence 30 Nov 2024, 5:05 pm

The Big Picture
With the election behind us, it’s time to refocus on the economy—and the outlook for 2025 is promising. The third quarter saw GDP growth of 2.8%, fueled by a solid 3.7% increase in consumer spending.

Unemployment remains low, and inflation continues to ease, providing a stable foundation for economic momentum.

October data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed consumer spending edged up 0.4% from September. However, sales in clothing and department stores dipped slightly, down 0.2%, with analysts pointing to disruptions from hurricanes as a factor holding back potential growth.

October Trends
In our client stores, overall sales were up 5% for the month.Sales of women’s wear ticked up 3%, with smaller stores doing better than larger ones. Larger stores struggled with drops in special orders and dresses—dresses were down 13% in October and are off 2% year to date. If this was your story, was it a traffic problem or a bad buy? Look at the data for insights.

Meanwhile, men’s wear shined again, with sales rising 7%. The standout category was clothing, up 11%, boosted by fresh fall fashion. Sportswear also held steady with a 5% gain.

The Final Sprint
As we head toward the end of the holiday season, we expect sales to remain positive, marking the end of a great retail year.

Focus on clearing your floors the day after Christmas with appropriate markdowns – we don’t think they need to be too steep, unless you went into the season overbought.

As we turn toward spring, take a good look at your remaining open to buy. Are there any trends or price points that would have improved your sales last spring? If so, invest in them now.

Blacks’ Bottom Line
There will be a lot of travel next year. Talk to your customers and record those destinations. Follow up with calls in the first quarter to sell them destination looks.

Why Expert Inventory Planners Are Also Great Business Coaches 26 Nov 2024, 3:37 pm

When we think about the traits that make a great business coach, qualities like strategic thinking, problem-solving, and adaptability often come to mind. Inventory planners aren’t typically the first professionals you may picture in this role, but the truth is that their skill set aligns remarkably well with effective business coaching.

After all, inventory planning is about far more than stock levels and supply chains—it’s about driving strategic growth, managing uncertainty, and keeping a close eye on the interplay between demand, supply, and profitability. Here’s a look at why expert inventory planners like ours often serve as fantastic business coaches.

1. Mastering the Balance of Supply and Demand

A core aspect of inventory planning is balancing supply and demand, which is a daily exercise in forecasting, strategy, and risk assessment. Good planners know how to analyze trends, anticipate needs, and ensure resources align with company goals. As planners and coaches, this translates to helping our clients navigate their own “supply and demand” issues, whether that means managing workforce levels, responding to market changes, or optimizing resources

2. Attention to Detail and Data-Driven Decision Making

Inventory planners live by data. They monitor levels, track costs, and analyze fluctuations to ensure smooth operations. This data-driven mindset is invaluable in coaching, where understanding metrics and setting measurable goals are crucial. Inventory planners naturally gravitate toward KPIs, forecasts, and numbers that matter, teaching business owners to do the same and enabling them to see where they can make the most impact.

3. Proactive Problem Solving Under Pressure

Supply chain disruptions, sudden changes in demand, and fluctuating costs are common in inventory management. Seasoned inventory planners become expert problem solvers out of necessity, which is a powerful asset in business coaching. They know how to assess risks quickly, make contingency plans, and navigate clients through unexpected challenges.

For example, during the Covid shutdowns, Blacks’ analysts carefully guided clients with new strategies and financial plans. As a result, all our client stores survived the crisis.

4. Understanding the Big Picture and Long-Term Planning

Inventory planning doesn’t just involve current stock levels; it requires long-term thinking. Experienced planners know how to plan for seasonal shifts, anticipate economic cycles, and account for future growth. As business coaches, we can guide clients in developing strategic plans and thinking long-term, ensuring that the business isn’t just reactive but proactive.

5. Adaptability and Agility in a Fast-Paced Environment

Perhaps one of the most defining characteristics of inventory planners is their adaptability. They are used to pivoting on short notice, responding to new data, and adjusting plans based on unexpected developments.

Conclusion: From Inventory Management to Business Success

Expert inventory planners bring a wealth of skills that translate naturally into business coaching. Blacks’ clients can get much more than planning if that’s what they want. If you are looking for help to drive your business forward and reach long-term goals, give us a call.