Stock Indices Spend Two Days In Rotation 15 Apr 2025, 8:16 pm

For the last two days, the Indices have been in a rotational pattern, obviously waiting on some information that will determine the next degree of price move. Keep in mind, the current market is driven by the news of tariffs. While the rotation gives areas of good trade location, make sure the internals confirm if there is a breakout move.

Market Internals Strengthen As Volume Falls 14 Apr 2025, 8:22 pm

While we did not see much gains in the Stock Indices today, the internals did strengthen. This is a holiday week, therefore volume is falling off and should continue to do that into Thursday’s close. Keep in mind, this is a news driven market. With that said, I would lean toward the long side with caution. Any bad news on the tariff issue will send the market back down. I mistakenly said it is the Briefing for Monday April 11. It is the Briefing for April 14.

Stock Indices End A Very Volatile Week 11 Apr 2025, 8:19 pm

This week has seen some extreme volatility in the Stock Indices. Monday’s extreme move based on a news event makes developing a high probability strategy difficult. As you will see in the Briefing, there is a longer-term possibility of another move lower, however the intermediate term suggests a low may in. The past week has been completely driven by the news and it has not been rational. Next week should give us more information on where value is and provide a higher probability strategy.

Tariff Pause Gives Fuel To Stock Buyers 9 Apr 2025, 8:12 pm

Once again, the announcement of a 90-day pause on tariffs gave energy to traders today as they bought the Indices very aggressively. Tomorrow will be extremely important. There should be follow-through, and the internals need to be at least as strong as they were today. While the Market is approaching short-term overbought, it does not preclude additional upside. If a bottom is in, tomorrow should give us the information necessary to confirm it.

Volatility Continues 8 Apr 2025, 8:15 pm

There were some large swings in price development over the last two days. While it may be the rally we saw yesterday and the decline today suggest the oversold countertrend rotation may be complete, there is still a possibility this rotation up may continue, if even in a rotational pattern. This possibility would be eliminated should the Indices trade below the low of today. As I stated in yesterday’s Briefing, this is a tariff news driven market. Therefore, it is difficult to develop a high probability strategy each day. If there is any good news, the Market will rally significantly. If there is negative or no news, it will slide lower.

A News Driven Market 7 Apr 2025, 8:29 pm

After the erroneous news suggesting a 90-day freeze on tariffs, the Market made an impulsive move higher. If there was any doubt over what was causing the selling, it should be alleviated. Based on that, once the tariff issue is resolved, it will be a tremendous buying opportunity. Until that occurs, there may be additional downside before it is over. Although, the Market is still extremely oversold, suggesting we may see a countertrend move higher or some type of rotation, as we saw today.

Market Internals Collapse 4 Apr 2025, 8:20 pm

In last night’s Briefing, I suggested the possibility of lower prices at the open today, but if there was a divergence in the market internals, it would suggest the possibility of some type of pause or countertrend rotation up. There were lower prices at the open today, but the internals were weaker than yesterday. In fact, they are at a weakness level that I cannot remember seeing in the past. The Indices closed at the low of the day, suggesting lower prices are likely on Monday. If prices are lower, watch for internal divergences to suggest a pause or rotation. This Market is very extremely oversold as of the close today. That does not preclude a continuation of the selling based on how weak the internals are, but we need to be aware of a pending rotation, as Markets run and pause in all degrees of time.

Stock Indices Close Below Important Support 3 Apr 2025, 8:23 pm

After the announcement of tariffs yesterday, the Indices sold off significantly today. Important to this is the fact that important support was either broken or tested, depending on each Index. The market internals were extremely weak, supporting the selloff. The probability of lower prices tomorrow is certainly there; however the Market is extremely oversold at this point. Therefore, some type of pause or rotation back up should be expected. Longer term possibilities suggest lower support is a good distance from today’s close. Price development and structure tomorrow will be important to the current analysis.

Stocks Anticipate The Impact Of Tariffs 2 Apr 2025, 8:28 pm

As I write this, President Trump is announcing the tariffs he is putting into effect. Today, the Stock Indices were slightly higher but spent most of the day in rotation. In terms of overbought and oversold, they are basically neutral. I am watching the action in the after-market and so far the reaction is positive. However, it will be important to see the pre-market tomorrow morning as Asia and Europe begins to trade. At the regular session open the “big boys: from the US will step in and then we will see the real impact of the determination of value.

I was very tempted to enter long before the close today, but it would have been a “gamble”. I was glad I didn’t because a little while later I was tempted to short the market. I thought about a straddle position but decided there was still not enough information to make a higher probability trade. Hopefully, we will get more information tomorrow to determine the next greater degree time and price move.

Volatility Continues Before Tariff Announcement 1 Apr 2025, 8:20 pm

As expected, the volatility in the Market has continued as traders attempt to determine the impact of tariffs on the determination of value for stocks. Today was a day of rotation with the internals basically neutral. The oversold condition has been worked off and it appears they are approaching overbought, if the current internals continue. It is a guessing game as to what will happen after the announcement, but the longer-term support and resistance levels I have discussed in the Briefings offer important areas for trade location, assuming the internals confirm.

Use caution tomorrow, as today was a fairly volatile day and tomorrow will likely be the same.